CALCULATORS OUT AGAIN: NIGERIA’S LONG ROAD TO THE 2026 WORLD CUP

By: Gyang Dakwo

The calculators are back out, and Nigerian fans know what that means. The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, once expected to be routine, has turned into a nail-biting chase.

Missed chances and dropped points have left the Super Eagles with little room to breathe. Two matches remain, and instead of leading the pack, Nigeria sits in third place in Group C, hoping for a miracle as much as a win.

Only the team that finishes first in the group qualifies automatically. For now, that place belongs to South Africa, with Benin close behind. Nigeria must therefore win both of its remaining games and pray its rivals slip. Once again, fans are caught in the familiar realm of permutations, waiting not just on their own results but on the fortunes of others.

The tension hit a new high on 9 September 2025 in Bloemfontein. Nigeria managed only a 1-1 draw with South Africa. An early own goal put the hosts ahead before Calvin Bassey pulled one back before halftime. The Eagles chased a winner with all they had but could not find it, leaving their campaign hanging by a thread.

This script feels familiar. In the 2010 qualifiers, Nigeria entered the final day behind Tunisia. They needed to beat Kenya away and hope Tunisia slipped. On 14 November 2009, the Eagles pulled off a 3-2 comeback win in Nairobi. At the same time, Tunisia lost 1-0 to Mozambique in Maputo, and Nigeria stole the ticket to South Africa.

The 2002 qualifiers had the same drama. Nigeria and Liberia were locked together until Liberia lost 3-1 at home to Ghana. Nigeria seized the chance, beating Sudan 3-0 in Port Harcourt on 28 July 2001 to book their place at the Korea Japan World Cup.

There have been calmer runs too. In 2018, Nigeria sealed qualification with a match to spare after a 1-0 victory over Zambia in Uyo on 7 October 2017. That night spared fans the usual nerves, even though doubts had lingered before the decisive game.

This current fight is harder as only one team qualifies directly from each group, and that makes every slip deadly. Nigeria now needs not only to win but to hope. History says the Eagles have wriggled out of tight corners before. It also warns of the danger when destiny rests in someone else’s hands.